My pre-market comments:  "As of 9:15 am ET, the indices are mixed showing small gaps in both directions. 

Gap Fade Risks:

1)  Mixed directions and zones

2)  Pattern risk only for the U-H zone

3)  ES currently in U-H zone (low win rate and PF)

1) most zones (except U-H) showing solid win rates  and PFs 

2) many pattern positives related to yesterdays wide range (WS7 = widest range of past 7 days) day

3) seasonality is ok for gaps in both directions

Bottom Line:  I will only fade today's gap in the ES -if- it opens in the U-HC zone (at or below 897.75), with HALF SIZE position. Will target gap fill for majority of position and hold some for extended target"

Gap Wrap Summary:  I followed my plan today and missed a 4th consecutive winning gap fade. With so many pattern positives favoring gap fill today, I was looking forward to this morning. But, with mixed markets and directions and small gaps, I was only interested in fading the instrument that I am most comfortable with: the e-mini S&P futures.   Unfortunately, the ES opened just above yesterday highs in the U-H zone and that was the one area in which I did not see a clearly defined edge and profit expectancy for fading the open. So, no play for me - EVEN THOUGH I FULLY EXPECTED A GAP FILL TODAY.

You may be thinking, "Whattha?!"  I don't blame you. I am a little disappointed I haven't caught any of these easy winners too. Of course, I could have taken a chance and fudged my plan by rationalizing that "it's opening just 1.5 pts above my entry point... that's close enough" and I would have caught a decent winner of about 3.5 pts ($175 per contract).  But at what cost?  Meaning, what is the long term implication of making a subjective, impulsive "gut" decision to take a chance that works out for me? Answer: A LOT! 

It would have made me more likely to bend my rules in the future and eroded my confidence in my system, while also providing NO FEEDBACK or impetus to double check my system to determine if there is something I am missing that should be incorporated into my plan so that I can catch these winners in the future.  

It only take a few, seemingly innocent decisions to trade outside of your plan, before you have "no plan" that you trust at all. Then you are back to "seat of your pants" trading and that ALWAYS results in failure. I repeat, ALWAYS.

So, per the title of this post, "what is the cost of following your plan?"

Answer:  A whole lot less than NOT following your plan.

Good day!