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"Understanding Gaps"
by Scott Andrews
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Gap Trading Video: none today / just a written recap

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My pre-market comments (posted at 9:20 am this morning on the members-only page called "Today's Gap Plays") stated:

"As of 9:10 AM ET, the markets are showing medium-sized gaps up above yesterday's highs in the U-H zone.

Risk Factors

  • Opening Risks: Possible/likely R1 straddles (i.e. opening above the daily R1 level) for most indices
  • Seasonality: the 17th of the month is ok historically for fading up gaps, but is a little weaker for U-H zones

Supporting Factors

  • Most indices are showing Ok win rates and good Profit Factors for the U-H zone for today's setups.
  • Supporting pattern: three successive prior daily higher lows

Bottom Line

I am fading today's opening gaps but am using a slightly bigger stop (~6-7 pts in the ES or about 20% bigger than the standard 30% of 5 day ATR) depending on where the ES opens. Ideally, I will be able to place my stop above R2 at 1103.5 in the ES.

I am reducing my position size to accomodate the bigger stop and will scale out about 2/3 at yesterday's highs and about 1/3 at ext target area.

Trade at own risk!"

Results

Was filled short at 1097.75 in the ES and then had to depart to Traders Expo presentation and meetings. My first target was eventually hit at 1094.25 for +3.5 pts on 2/3 of my position.  But extended target was never hit and I closed out last third from the Laguardia airport just before the close of the cash session at 1098.25 for -.5 pts.

Total trade profit was about 2 points (+$100) per contract. A little disappointing, but not bad considering I was busy at the Expo while nabbing this small win.




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