(Was travelling and unable to do my normal gap wrap video).

Summary

All of the indices opened in the BLUD zone (below the low of an up day a.ka. the U-L zone) - historically, the lowest probability zone for fading opening gaps in the indices. 

As noted in my pre-market comments, the historical probabilities for the Nasdaq and Russell indices based upon market conditions and patterns and seasonality, were surprisingly good. But the S&P and Dow data showed more normal "BLUD" zone data (i.e. weak and risky), so I passed on the setup.

The markets gyrated sideways for the better part of the day, unable to break down and unable to rally. By the afternoon however, the bulls took over and filled the gaps in the Russell and Nasdaq indices. The S&P and Dow finished above their opening prices but below Wednesday's closing prices, forming "false up days."

So technically it was a miss since these could have been traded profitably (without being stopped out using a 30% of 5 day ATR). Would it have been nice to catch these winning gap fades? Of course!  But it would have been worse to gamble on this setup that has a lower historical win rate than I like/need for my trading plan.

For me, it's always better to miss a winner, than to catch a loser.